As confetti fell from the roof of Lucas Oil Stadium, Penn State’s players stuck around to soak in the defeat. It was a 45-37 loss against Oregon in the Big Ten Championship. It was a game that appeared winnable if not for some notable mistakes. It was a game that had the power, again, to propel James Franklin’s program into elite status.
The confetti has now been cleared from the turf. There should hardly be any disappointment left for the Nittany Lions, who now have everything ahead of them. They have arguably the most favorable path of any team in the College Football Playoff. Despite a loss, Penn State was the big winner on Sunday’s selection day. Even more so than the top-ranked, undefeated Ducks.
“I think in the locker room, because the season isn’t over, I think it was handled pretty well,” Franklin said on Sunday. “Obviously, there were still some hurt feelings and raw emotions, but overall, I think guys get it and understand that we got a ton of football left in front of us, as long as we handle it the right way. And I think our leadership will step up big time.”
The Nittany Lions, seeded No. 6, will host No. 11 SMU at Beaver Stadium at noon on Saturday, Dec. 21. With a win, they’d face No. 3 Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl on Tuesday, Dec. 31. It’s a doable draw for a team that had no problems beating the teams it was supposed to beat over the regular season.
“Having a home game, I think, is huge for a ton of reasons,” Franklin said. “Obviously, hopefully a home-field advantage. Also for Happy Valley, the community, it should be a win-win for everybody.”
When Texas fell to Georgia in the SEC Championship on Saturday, it became increasingly likely that Penn State’s seed would drop from the No. 5 spot it held prior to facing Oregon. It was just a matter of how significant that drop would be. With a head-to-head loss to Ohio State and strong case from Notre Dame, it appeared possible the Nittany Lions could even fall to No. 7 or 8.
The No. 5 seed always presented itself as the most favorable path outside of the teams granted first-round byes. And entering Sunday, that was particularly because it seemed as if the Mustangs, who fell to Clemson in the ACC Championship, would be the last team in and earn the No. 12 seed. Instead, that was designated to the Tigers.
Now, the Longhorns will face Clemson and the winner of that game will play Arizona State, the Big 12 title winner, in the quarterfinal. And with the No. 6 seed, Penn State will play a conference-championship runner-up, a Group of Five program until this season, SMU and, with a win, the Mountain West champion.
The other first-round matchup on the Nittany Lions’ side of the bracket is between Notre Dame, a team that lost to Northern Illinois on Sept. 7, and Indiana, which fell 38-15 to the Buckeyes. The winner of that game will face No. 2 Georgia, which could turn to backup quarterback Gunner Stockton in the wake of an arm injury to starter Carson Beck.
The Fighting Irish, Hoosiers and Bulldogs all present themselves as beatable opponents if Penn State were to face them in the semifinals. It’s a much easier path to the National Championship than Oregon, which will be tasked with playing the winner of No. 8 Ohio State and No. 9 Tennessee in the quarterfinals.
That could’ve been the Nittany Lions’ path if they beat the Ducks on Saturday. They’ve been rewarded for losing in the conference championship, a clear flaw in the playoff’s selection format. That could be altered in future years, but, for now, Penn State should be excited about the opportunity it has.
“I think the whole model needs to be looked at,” Franklin said on ESPN’s selection show on Sunday. “But then if we do that, it gives nothing for you guys to talk about because this creates great dialog for you guys to discuss and argue. But I think the biggest thing is, you want to get the 12 best teams in the playoffs. That’s the obvious statement. But also, I think there’s some tie-ins and things like that that make it challenging for that to happen.”
“Also, everybody should be in a conference and everybody should play a conference championship game. … Not everything is equal. Everybody should be playing the same number of conference games. Everybody should be in a conference, everybody should be playing a conference championship game or not playing a conference championship game. I think that would really help.”
